The NHE is published annually and is often referred to as the “official” estimates of US health spending and health insurance enrollment. The historical and projected estimates of NHE measure total annual US spending for the delivery of health care goods and services by type of good or service (hospital, physician, prescription drugs, etc.) and by payer (private health insurance (PHI), Medicare, Medicaid, etc.).

In general, CMS projects that over 2022–2031, average annual growth in NHE (5.4%) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.6%), resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031. A few of the highlights are provided below:

Medicare: Average annual expenditure growth of 7.5% is projected for Medicare over 2022–2031. In 2022, the combination of fee-for-service beneficiaries utilizing emergent hospital care at lower rates and the reinstatement of payment rate cuts associated with the Medicare Sequester Relief Act of 2022 resulted in slower Medicare spending growth of 4.8% (down from 8.4% in 2021).

Medicaid:  On average, over 2022–2031, Medicaid expenditures are projected to grow by 5.0%.    
Private Health Insurance: Over 2022–2031, private health insurance spending growth is projected to average 5.4%.

Overview of Hospital Trends: Over 2022–2031, hospital spending growth is expected to average 5.8% annually.

Overview of Physician and Clinical Services Trends: Growth in physician and clinical services spending is projected to average 5.3% over 2022–2031.